Market Growth Meets Rising Risks: The Impact of Policy & Sentiment

At first glance, 2025 appears to be another strong year for markets. The MSCI ACWI Index gained 3.36% in January, and the S&P 500 is up 4.2% year-to-date, fueled by strong corporate earnings and economic resilience.

Yet, the latest weekly market data suggests growing instability beneath the surface.

• Major U.S. indexes moved lower in mid-February, weighed down by concerns about weak consumer spending, higher interest rates, and regulatory uncertainty.
• Stock market dispersion is rising—meaning individual stocks are moving in opposite directions, masking overall volatility.³
• Investor sentiment is at its lowest since 2023, with many worried about tariffs, inflation, and stretched valuations.⁴
• Signs of market froth are growing, with speculation in meme stocks and options trading hitting new highs.⁵

So, is this a market poised for more gains, or one at risk of a correction?

At FWS, the focus remains on long-term discipline and data-driven insights. Here’s what’s happening in the markets today.

Stock Markets Are Up, But Risks Are Building

The Hidden Volatility Beneath Index Stability

One of the most unusual aspects of this year’s rally is that while major indexes remain steady, individual stocks are experiencing significant swings.

• The Cboe S&P 500 Dispersion Index, which tracks how differently stocks move from each other, hit its highest level since May 2022.³
• This means some stocks are surging, while others are plummeting, balancing out at the index level.

Take the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks:

• Alphabet (Google) is down 8.2%, while Meta (Facebook) is up 10.6%.³
• Protectionist policies are creating winners and losers, with companies like Caterpillar and Hasbro struggling due to tariff concerns.⁴

Meanwhile, the latest weekly data shows large-cap stocks outperforming small caps, but with a sharp decline in consumer-related sectors. This was triggered by Walmart’s weaker-than-expected earnings guidance, which spooked investors about a potential downturn in consumer spending.

Investor Sentiment: Pessimism on the Rise

Despite index gains, investor confidence is eroding.

• Bearish sentiment hit 47.3% in mid-February, the highest since November 2023.
• Investors are worried about:
  
  • The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth.
  • Uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts—expectations for multiple cuts in 2025 have faded due to persistent inflation.⁴
  • Regulatory uncertainty, particularly in health care, where a Department of Justice probe into UnitedHealth Group sent health care stocks lower.

Meanwhile, investors are quietly pulling money out of stocks.

• In January, U.S. equity mutual and exchange-traded funds saw $11 billion in outflows.⁴

Even with major indexes holding firm, there’s a growing sense of unease beneath the surface.

Are We in a Market Bubble?

While some investors worry about declining sentiment, others fear the opposite—that markets are getting too speculative.

Speculation is Running Hot

• Options trading hit a new record in January, with zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) contracts surging, signaling a rise in risky short-term bets.⁵
• Meme stocks are back: Palantir, GameStop, and BlackBerry have all gained over 90% in the past year, driven by speculative trading.⁵

Stock Valuations Are Getting Stretched

• The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio recently hit 22x expected earnings, above its 10-year average of 19x, and close to the dot-com bubble’s peak of 26x.
• While strong earnings growth is supporting valuations, high interest rates could cut into profits, making further stock gains harder to justify.⁵

These signs raise concerns that investors may be taking on excessive risk—setting the stage for a potential correction.

Looking Ahead: The Importance of Disciplined Investing

At FWS, the focus remains on long-term discipline and research-driven insights. While headline indices may seem calm, it’s essential to recognize the underlying shifts within the market.

Key Takeaways from Recent Market Trends:

·      Not all stocks are moving in the same direction—rising dispersion means some stocks will significantly underperform even as indexes rise.

·      Consumer spending uncertainty is a growing concern, particularly after Walmart’s weak forecast.

·      Market sentiment is turning cautious, with bearish investors reaching their highest levels since 2023.

·      Options and meme stock speculation is increasing, raising questions about market stability.

·      Monetary policy remains a wildcard, with the Federal Reserve signaling that rate cuts aren’t imminent.

Sources

1. January Market Commentary – Equity Performance & Economic Data.
2. Weekly Market Update – Consumer Weakness & Fed Policy Risks.
3. WSJ: An Investing Riddle – Stock Markets Appear Calm, But Stocks Are Turbulent.
4. WSJ: Investor Sentiment is at a Multi-Year Low – What it Means for Markets.
5. WSJ: Investors Spot Signs of Market Froth – Speculation is Growing.